Is he falling or flying? — a few ways to lead in uncertain times
Hey there, thanks for taking a moment to pause and enjoy this issue of the Dialogic Learning Weekly. Today’s thoughtful foray explores ambiguity and how we lead in uncertain times.
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Before we start, let us note the context of this work. There are lots of abstractions and generalisations — which make things ambiguous! You can apply the ideas in this issue to various scenarios, such as your professional learning plans, strategic and annual improvement planning; organisational change; team problem solving; product development and innovation.
Take a moment to recognise your context and where you notice uncertainty, ambiguity or opportunities for growth. Keep the work grounded and practical; use that as your lens to explore the rest of this issue.
Name the ambiguity
In our attempts to lead development or facilitate change, we need to be honest about what is foggy. This technique relies on our awareness, or the collective radar, for clear or murky signals. Suzanne Gibbs Howard, the Dean of IDEO U, advocates for sharing these doubts and naming the uncertainties.
If your team is too afraid to discuss these, you can’t learn from them or use them to your advantage to initiate rich, forward-thinking conversations.
Our appetite for the ambiguous nature of development is about self-awareness too.
Ask yourself, am I in a fear operating system? What’s making me afraid? Can I name the ambiguity in this moment and engage a few trusted others in looking for a better path forward?
It is one thing to identify ambiguous elements of your work; it is an entirely different expectation to respond positively.
This reminds me of our Negative Capability — the capacities we have when faced with ambiguity. How we are “capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason” ~ John Keats (1899)
The work:
Call it. Speak up about how you are feeling and the uncertainties you notice. Hold up a mirror.
Set Fuzzy Goals
For decades we have been on the SMART goal diet, tightly constraining our plans within the acronymous attributes. I want to write “What happens when our plans become uncertain?” but this would be describing life and all goal setting.
Setting ‘Fuzzy Goals’ is a strategy you can use to describe the direction you are heading without the certainty of fixed outcomes available to you.
A fuzzy goal straddles the space between two contradictory criteria: At one end of the spectrum is the clear, specific, quantifiable goal, such as 1,000 units or $1,000. At the other end is the goal that is so vague as to be, in practice, impossible to achieve; for example, peace on earth or a theory of everything. While these kinds of goals may be noble, and even theoretically achievable, they lack sufficient definition to focus the creative activity. Fuzzy goals must give a team a sense of direction and purpose while leaving team members free to follow their intuition.
An essential attribute of Fuzzy Goal setting is the flexibility to adapt in response to change. As soon as we start a project or begin development, the context and perspective have shifted.
What is unknown usually far outweighs what is known. In many ways, it’s a journey in the fog.
Dave Gray references the idea of successive approximations. These fuzzy goals and course corrections respond to the available information. They balance a sense of direction and freedom to explore. Fuzzy Goals are progressive:
The process of moving toward the goal is also a learning process, sometimes called successive approximation. As the team learns, the goals may change, so it’s important to stop every once in awhile and look around. Fuzzy goals must be adjusted, and sometimes completely changed, based on what you learn as you go.
When we face great uncertainty and ambiguity, we need tools cast from a different forge.
The work:
Get off the SMART goal diet. Have a go at sharing a broad direction or fuzzy goal. Invest in continuous adjustment and successive approximations.
Trust the process
If you are leading, facilitating or coaching others through an emergent process, your tolerance for ambiguity plays a role.
Low tolerance for uncertainty is an inhibitor of creative thinking, according to James Adams. He names it as one of the emotional blocks to creativity in his book Conceptual Blockbusting. That lack of tolerance can manifest in different ways.
Sonja Blignaut explains what we can do when noticing the discomfort and irritation in others:
As facilitator you need to be able to contain this energy by being comfortable with the uncertainty yourself. It is much easier to take a group through pre-designed content, or to work towards a known outcome. Emergent processes mean that the facilitator is not “in control”, which can be anxiety provoking. Befriending uncertainty is like muscle that needs to be exercised (and stretched) regularly!
If you expect others to engage with a sketchy future, you need to get in the arena with them. Sonja Blignaut challenges us:
if you can’t trust an emergent process, why would the people you are facilitating?
The work:
Get comfortable in the fog. Set expectations for exploring uncertainty that you are willing to strive for. Befriend uncertainty.
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The photograph was taken by Shane Rounce of Theo Warden. It makes me wonder ‘is he falling or flying?’ According to Shane he is just jumping 😂
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Thanks for reading the 215th issue. Let me know what resonates and what strategies help you navigate ambiguity.
In dialogue we trust.
~ Tom
